Author: Natasha Ferrari and Aishwarya Jadhav

India’s Cattle Sector: Growth, Climate Transitions, and Global Opportunity

India’s cattle sector faces both climate transition risks and opportunities, how the industry responds will shape its future for the decade ahead 

India’s agricultural economy remains a cornerstone of its development story, supporting millions of livelihoods and serving as a key driver of economic growth. In 2023–24, agriculture contributed around 18 percent of India’s GDP and provided work for nearly half of the national population. Within this sector, livestock—and cattle in particular—occupy a central role. The livestock segment alone accounts for more than 30 percent of agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) and over 5 percent of India’s overall GDP, underscoring its importance to the rural economy and national prosperity alike. 

India also holds a unique global position: It is home to the largest cattle herd in the world, projected to reach around 307 million head in 2025, including both bovine cattle and domestic water buffalo. These herds sustain India’s status as the largest global producer of milk and the leading producer and exporter of buffalo meat (carabeef), making the sector a pillar of domestic food security and a powerful force in international markets. 

Yet, this prominence also exposes the sector to mounting pressures. The industry must now navigate two converging challenges: the physical effects of climate change—from heat stress to disease outbreaks—and the transition risks associated with the global shift toward low-carbon economies. How India’s cattle industry responds will shape its trajectory during the decade ahead, influencing rural livelihoods and its role in world trade. 

The Physical Toll of Climate Change

Alongside these physical threats, transition risks—arising from regulatory, market, and reputational shifts tied to climate action—are increasingly shaping the sector’s future. Global buyers are tightening standards, favoring traceable, low-emission supply chains. As discussions on carbon pricing and methane regulation gain momentum, exporters could face rising compliance costs to maintain market access. 

India’s domestic markets are also evolving. In India’s cities, a rising consumer class is embracing plant-based proteins and sustainably certified dairy products. Market forecasts for the alternative dairy and eggs market predict growth through 2030 with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 30 to 36 percent and an increase in market value from USD 21 billion in 2021 to USD 86-172 billion by 2030. While these trends present premium opportunities for producers that can demonstrate low-carbon practices, they also pose risks for traditional operations unable to adapt quickly. 

Reputation risk is another factor the sector cannot ignore. International scrutiny of methane emissions, land use, and animal welfare is intensifying. Trading partners, particularly in Europe and North America, are beginning to link import standards to environmental performance. Should India’s cattle industry fail to demonstrate progress on sustainability, its competitiveness as a leading exporter could come under threat. 

In 2023, India was the 2nd largest global emitter of methane. India’s methane emissions in 2018 totaled roughly 891.33 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). The cattle and dairy sectors are major contributors, with livestock accounting for approximately 451.1 million metric tons CO2e (48 percent of these emissions). For comparison, that is greater than the combined total greenhouse gas emissions of France and Monaco in 2023 (385.52 million metric tons CO2e). 

Growth and Reliance on Global Trade

Despite these headwinds, India’s cattle sector remains a driver of growth. Domestic demand for dairy and meat is buoyed by urbanization and rising incomes, while government programs to improve dairy productivity and buffalo breeding are helping meet consumption needs. 

Internationally, India continues to dominate key markets. In 2023-24, animal-product exports reached USD 4.54 billion, with buffalo meat accounting for more than 80 percent of this total. Carabeef production is forecast to rise to 4.64 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, up from 4.57 MMT in 2024, while exports are projected to rise 4 percent to 1.65 MMT in 2025. These volumes reinforce India’s status as a global supplier, but maintaining this role will increasingly depend on the sector’s ability to align with sustainability benchmarks demanded by international buyers. 

Regulatory Pressures and Domestic Disruptions 

Beyond climate-driven risks, the sector has also faced upheaval from domestic policies and social dynamics. State-level beef bans, attacks by cow vigilantes, and closures of municipal slaughterhouses over environmental and hygiene violations have all disrupted the beef value chain. These pressures have driven some farmers to abandon their animals, contributing to an estimated 5 million stray cattle roaming across India. The government has responded with USD 41 million in funding to build over 5,000 gaushalas (cow shelters), a stopgap solution that underscores how quickly regulatory and social forces can create costly disruptions—another form of transition risk. 

Turning Risks into Opportunity 

For India’s cattle sector, thriving in the decades ahead will require embracing the climate transition, not resisting it. Programs such as the National Livestock Mission and the “Waste to Wealth” initiative, which converts cattle dung into biogas and compost, show how environmental goals and profitability can align. Expanding these efforts—through carbon-credit schemes, targeted subsidies for methane-reducing feed, and financing for affordable cooling systems—would help both smallholders and large-scale operations meet rising standards while staying profitable. 

Technology is central to this transformation. Collaborations involving the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Cornell University, and the Environmental Defense Fund are advancing practical solutions, from low-cost cooling systems for heat-stressed cattle to methane-reducing feed additives and nutrient management models like the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System, which optimizes feed efficiency and reduces waste. These innovations improve efficiency while lowering emissions, offering a path for India’s producers to remain competitive in a decarbonizing global market. 

By scaling sustainable practices, investing in innovation, and aligning with evolving consumer and regulatory expectations, India’s cattle industry can protect the livelihoods of millions, secure its export markets, and position itself as a global leader in climate-smart agriculture. For a sector so central to the economy and food security, embracing the climate transition is not just an opportunity, it is a necessity for long-term survival and growth.