Brazilian Forest Restoration Market Can Unlock $141 Billion In Value

Authors: Kyle Saukas

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New Orbitas report shows why Brazil is the next frontier for high-return, nature-based investments

Climate transitions can spur Brazil’s forest restoration market to hit $141 billion with attractive returns for investors to make better use of degraded agricultural pastureland.

“Restoring degraded land in Brazil would provide enormous benefits to investors, businesses, people and nature,” said Nigel Purvis, CEO of Climate Advisers. “Nature-based solutions are increasingly lucrative, and Brazil is well positioned to lead globally. Seizing this land restoration opportunity, however, will require innovative finance and policy instruments, which the private sector and civil society in Brazil should work together to advance right now to avoid missing out.”

As Brazil seeks to boost its bioeconomy on the global stage at COP30 this year and carbon markets regain trust from buyers, the Brazilian forest restoration market is seeing significant growth today. But, according to new Orbitas research, this emerging market has significant room to grow while simultaneously benefitting people, the planet, and investors’ bottom line.

Orbitas Analyzes Brazil’s Forest Restoration Potential 

Orbitas, a Climate Advisers initiative, assessed how Climate Transitions (actions society takes to address climate change) will impact the market value of forest restoration in Brazil across several scenarios. With revenues from carbon markets and sustainable forest products, Brazilian forest restoration projects could receive up to USD 7,000 per hectare and an internal rate of return of 169%.

These projections show that forest restoration under these conditions could be five times as profitable as cattle ranching on these degraded pasturelands. Brazil has the potential to restore forests across nearly 60 million hectares of these degraded agricultural lands, an area the size of France. This investment opportunity could create up to 369,000 full-time jobs annually in Brazil, boosting rural economies. Moreover, forest restoration at scale in Brazil can sequester as much as 451 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year by 2050.

Four Converging Forces Driving Growth for Brazil’s Forest Restoration Market 

1. Political Will Is Building: Brazil’s public and private sectors are aligning behind ambitious climate goals. Domestic Brazilian policies, such as the ABC+ Plan, aim to recover degraded pastures, while Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to a 59–67% emissions reduction by 2035, anchored by large-scale restoration.
2. Agricultural Productivity Is Rising: Brazil’s agricultural yield grew 55% between 2000 and 2025, and further gains are expected. This frees up low-productivity pastureland for restoration without compromising food security — enabling climate mitigation alongside economic growth.
3. Forest Restoration Is Becoming Profitable: Under a 2°C scenario, restoring pastureland can yield up to USD 7,000 per hectare. This increases to USD 21,000 per hectare in more ambitious 1.5°C scenarios. Restoration projects offer an Internal Rate of Return up to 169%, outpacing traditional cattle farming by up to a factor of five.
4. Innovative Finance Is Emerging: Capital is increasingly flowing through blended finance vehicles, voluntary carbon markets, green bonds, and future biodiversity credits. The Brazil Restoration & Bioeconomy Finance Coalition has committed USD 10 billion to restore 5 million hectares by 2030. Leading corporations including Microsoft have already signed offtake agreements for nature-based carbon removals in Brazil, and others including Nestlè are funding nature reforestation and nature-based practices. 

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