Brazil’s Forest Restoration Market Poised to Deliver $141 Billion Opportunity for Companies and Investors
Today, Orbitas, a Climate Advisers initiative, releases a new report revealing the economic case for large-scale forest restoration in Brazil. The report, Room to Grow: The Economic Case for Forest Restoration in Brazil, identifies a USD 141 billion opportunity over the next 30 years for companies and investors. With up to 60 million hectares of degraded pastureland — an area nearly the size of France — primed for restoration, Brazil stands at the forefront of a global nature-based investment boom.
This investment opportunity could create up to 369,000 full-time jobs annually in Brazil, sequester as much as 451 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year by 2050, and revitalize rural economies across the Amazon, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest biomes. For companies under growing pressure to meet climate, biodiversity, and supply chain goals, forest restoration in Brazil offers a scalable and profitable path forward.
“Restoring degraded land in Brazil would provide enormous benefits to investors, businesses, people and nature,” said Nigel Purvis, CEO of Climate Advisers. “Nature-based solutions are increasingly lucrative, and Brazil is well positioned to lead globally. Seizing this land restoration opportunity, however, will require innovative finance and policy instruments, which the private sector and civil society in Brazil should work together to advance right now to avoid missing out.
Four Forces Driving a Restoration Boom
The report, by Orbitas – an initiative focusing on climate transition risks and opportunities – with support from the International Institute for Sustainability (IIS), highlights four converging forces that make this moment pivotal for forest restoration in Brazil:
- Political Will Is Building: Brazil’s public and private sectors are aligning behind climate goals. Domestic Brazilian policies, such as the ABC+ Plan, aim to recover degraded pastures, while Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to a 59–67% emissions reduction by 2035, anchored by large-scale restoration.
- Agricultural Productivity Is Rising: Brazil’s agricultural yield grew 55% between 2000 and 2025, and further gains are expected. This frees up low-productivity pastureland for restoration without compromising food security — enabling climate mitigation alongside economic growth.
- Forest Restoration Is Becoming Profitable: Under a 2°C scenario, restoring pastureland can yield up to USD 7,000 per hectare. This increases to USD 21,000 per hectare in more ambitious 1.5°C scenarios. Restoration projects offer internal rates of return up to 169%, outpacing traditional cattle farming by up to a factor of five.
- Innovative Finance Is Emerging: Capital is increasingly flowing through blended finance vehicles, voluntary carbon markets, green bonds, and future biodiversity credits. The Brazil Restoration & Bioeconomy Finance Coalition has committed USD 10 billion to restore 5 million hectares by 2030. Leading corporations including Microsoft have already signed offtake agreements for nature-based carbon removals in Brazil, and others including Nestlè are funding nature reforestation and nature-based practices.
“This report explores how Brazil has great potential to benefit from a climate transition through investments in restoration that recovers the value of degraded land while capturing carbon revenues, increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring continuing resilient economic development,” said Orbitas Sr. Fellow Alexandre Köberle.
“Restoring 64 million hectares of degraded land in Brazil is more than a climate target for 2050: it is an economic opportunity to generate up to USD 141 billion and nearly 400,000 jobs per year”, said Bruna Pavani, Institutional Engagement Leader at IIS. “”The report ‘Room to Grow’ shows that forest restoration in Brazil can be financially viable, generating returns of up to USD 21,000 per hectare — connecting climate and economy in the land-use transition”.
A Strategic Advantage for Early Investors
As global demand for sustainable supply chains and nature-based climate solutions accelerates, Brazil is emerging as a top-tier destination for investment in forest restoration. The country’s agricultural sector, accounting for nearly 30% of GDP, has historically driven deforestation, degrading over 28 million hectares of pastureland. But climate transitions — the global shift toward climate-conscious policies, technologies and markets — are making restoration of land for improved agricultural production and forest restoration both necessary and highly profitable.
Forest restoration also provides significant co-benefits — including improved water systems, biodiversity protection, and sustainable income for Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Investors targeting the most profitable 5 million hectares could generate USD 60–141 billion in value. States such as Pará and Mato Grosso offer some of the highest returns, with ROIs exceeding 150%.
Global Climate Goals, Local Economic Impact
Domestic and international climate efforts are driving climate transitions that will incentivize improving agricultural yields on less land than is farmed today for Brazil’s agribusiness sector. This trend makes possible the opportunity of restoring 60 million hectares of degraded pastureland for forest restoration capable of sequestering the annual equivalent of Argentina’s emissions. Meanwhile, forest restoration generates up to 0.42 jobs per hectare, boosting rural employment even as traditional agricultural jobs are on the decline in Brazil.
As Brazil prepares to host COP30 in 2025, the country is positioned to lead the global restoration economy. For companies and investors seeking high-return, high-impact climate solutions, Brazil’s forest restoration opportunity is not just timely – it’s transformative.
Media contacts:
Natasha Ferrari, Senior Director, Communications, Climate Advisers, ferrari@climateadvisers.org
Kyle Saukas, Director, Communications, Climate Advisers, saukas@climateadvisers.org
About Orbitas:
Orbitas, is a Climate Advisers initiative that has been a major player in risk analysis across the agriculture, land and forestry sectors since 2020. Since then, it has developed first-of-its-kind methodologies for quantifying climate transition risks and opportunities through economic modeling and financial stress testing. In addition to publishing a ground-breaking global analysis in 2020, Orbitas has localized its analysis with country-level deep dives on Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Indonesia. Additional information is available at orbitas.finance.
About Climate Advisers:
Climate Advisers works to strengthen climate action in the United States and around the world through research, analysis, public policy advocacy and communications strategies. We partner with governments, non-profits, philanthropies, international organizations, financial institutions and companies to help deliver the clean economy. We develop and promote sensible, high-impact initiatives that improve lives, enhance international security and strengthen communities. We believe addressing the challenges of climate change requires ambition, commitment and collaboration to achieve transformative impact for national economies, local communities and indigenous people. We bring together experts in clean energy, financial markets, land use, US policy and politics, international diplomacy, strategic communications, corporate engagement, carbon markets and ESG to craft innovative solutions for clients who are committed to tackling some world’s most urgent challenges. As a B Lab certified B Corporation, we create and implement pioneering programs to advance climate solutions and enable sustainable growth. Find out more at climateadvisers.org.
About IIS
Founded in 2009 in Rio de Janeiro, the International Institute for Sustainability (IIS) is an independent think-and-do tank focused on understanding the relationship between humans and the rest of nature. The Institute conducts research, training, and develops tools to promote sustainable land use — particularly biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, sustainable land management, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the socioeconomic development of people involved in these processes.
Contact:
Carolina Mazzi, Senior Communications Analyst, IIS: c.mazzi@iis-rio.org